http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/08/your_vp_senator_what_will_h e_b.php

Let me tell you first what I won't do.  I won't hand over my energy policy to my vice president, without knowing necessarily what he's doing.

...I have a feeling this place is about to get ugly

For the record, my bet is on Clinton.
Question is, how would they deal with the reels of footage with Clinton bashing Obama and, to a lesser degree, Obama bashing Clinton? A lot of the stuff they said is harmless, but some of it, especially about Obama's readiness to be president and his history of connections with controversial people, could be killer in McCain's ads.

At least we know an Obama/Clinton ticket would know how to fight back. And the are each in their own rite among the best campaigners in modern American politics.

I am serious about this prediction. If it wasn't so damn hard to fund an InTrade account I would already have money on it.

Looking forward to the big announcement.

Also, read a New York Magazine article from October of last year that was trying to diagnose why Barack Obama, after having raised so many expectations, was so lackluster.  Sources close to his campaign were saying that they were trying to hold off campaigning in earnest until they could get some momentum out of it - they didn't want to peak too early.

The writer was skeptical, but of course that's what happened.  I'm hoping the convention is like the post-Iowa speech, and that he gets a Bill Clinton sized bounce out of it.  If anyone can pull it off, he can.

"I'm not the guy" comment.  What does that say about Biden's mouth if he already had to walk back from a comment that he pretty much made unsolicited?

At the last gasps of the PUMAs (and the undercover PUMAs) as they freak out upon realizing it's not gonna be Hillary.

I wonder if they're pushing off the announcement (assuming even that story is true) in order to convince someone who previously refused being the VP nominee.

I think this site is sorely lacking in VP speculation and VP speculation threads. Please tell people to make more of them.

Thanks!

Clark
Hillary
Biden

Just wanted to get my 3 picks out there.

in Dan Abrams's old slot!

man is he hot!

From talkingpointsmemo tonight - Thought it was interesting --

I think we'll look back on August as when Obama won the election. August was when John McCain had the chance to define Obama and so cement a negative view of him that he could never recover. Now his time is almost up, the conventions are about to begin and we get into the full swing of the campaign. And what did McCain get out of his month? The Gallup tracking poll barely budged; most polls show Obama still with a modest lead, only slightly less than where he started a month or so ago. Obama's negatives are up somewhat -- no surprise after the pummeling he took -- but hardly up to critical levels. Unlike with Kerry, no single message has stuck -- he's a flipflopper! No, he's a scary leftist! No he's an empty celebrity! With no single negative image, the effect is likely to diffuse over time, especially with a successful Democratic convention. I think Obama's played this just right so far. Yes, lots of folks are complaining he hasn't gone after McCain enough but it simply wouldn't have worked. McCain has not been the story -- Obama has been. Unfair, sure, but that's the way it is. Obama's the new guy in town and everyone is trying to figure him out. So instead of fecklessly launching attack after attack on McCain only to have them disappear into the ether, he sat back and played rope-a-dope waiting for his moment. Now his moment is coming. The VP choice, the convention, the post-Labor Day sharpening of people's attention, the debates and the full onslaught of ads, money, and organization. Can he blow it? Sure. He's new to this. He can make the wrong VP choice. He can give an empty, if soaring, acceptance speech (or it could rain!) Hillary and Bill (especially Bill) could add a sour taste to the convention and make that the story. He could fall short of expectations in the debate. But all (or most of those) are under his control. I would so rather be Obama heading toward November than McCain. It's his for the taking if he just executes it right.

I agree that Obama is in a better place now than McCain. I also think it's likely that he'll get a big bounce in the next week. Meanwhile, you have McCain announcing his vp on the Friday of Labor Day weekend when no one is paying attention to politics and it's also the day of his 72nd birthday.

Also, while I'd certainly prefer it if Obama were further ahead, for a non-incumbent, it's pretty typical to have tight races. With a core surrogate - the vp pick - Obama will be well equipped to hit McCain and promote the positive message.

Gore will be speaking next Thursday and if there's one thing he can say as a highly credible speaker is that it matters who gets elected.

Looking at the overall state of the race and state by state polling it looks like we have a lot to do if were going to get Obama elected.  And the reason is because of racism.  Its simple.  If he were Bayh or Biden he would be up by 10 points.  DAMN!

When all this VP Excitement is over, it will still boil down 100% to no one but Sir Barack Obama.

He will win or lose in November based on himself.

All he can do is pick a VP who will not Hurt Him.

But to actually expect a VP to carry him or push him over the finish line will be asking way too much.

In a Very Close Race, Obama NEEDS Hillary more than ever. A Kaine or a Biden will not deliver a Ohio or Missouri. It will not ensure a win in PA.

In a Very Close race, only REGISTERED DEMOCRATS can push Obama over the finish line. HRC may not bring all of her solid supporters to vote for Obama, but she will certainly bring enough of them to close the deal in a close raceby being the VP.

But if McCain is up even by 5% or more by mid October, Hillary nor any VP cannot help Obama.

Yes, the Democratic Party will have to join Obama in either pulling off a victory or losing this election despite such an Huge Historical advantage never seen before.

While Harry Reid & Nancy Pelosi are virtually assured of a BIG NIGHT in November, the opposite is true for Obama.

This is the problem when you have a large group of idealistic liberals who were more concerned
about making some "Racial Historical Primary Victory" at the expense of very possibly losing the GE.

Where is the Youth voters? Where are the millions of New Black voters who would carry Obama in the GE ?

Obama could outspend McCain by 5 to 1 & he'd still be in a dogfight. That's how weak his candidacy is.

McCain war hero?

via TPM cafe...

http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202, 164859_1,00.html

Pretty interesting article on what the heck Obama's been up to..

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?arti cle=its_his_party_08

Nothing to see here...move along..please step behind the yellow tape..

http://www.pubrecord.org//nationworld/26 2.html

Almost there on Poblano's supertracker.

I'm hearing (from what little news I can stomach to watch) that this election is going to be a squeaker.

Folks, tin foil hat and all, Republicans can control the voting machines.  All this talk of squeaker is just a precursor to the theft of this election.

Obama is no Messiah or FDR or JFK, but he IS the man for this time.  Having been a Gore, then Clinton supporter, I was not thrilled with his success, but I concede that he is the nominee that the Democrats WILL and MUST support.  I pity the man for he will inherit a God-awful mess, but he will surround himself with a support group, as all great leaders do, that will work to drag us from the jaws of Republican FUBAR.

to tune into Rachel Maddow's new show on MSNBC starting 09/08/08 at 9 PM. Finally a true progressive for the "liberal" media!